International Energy Agency Releases Forecast

The International Energy Agency has released the summary of their world energy report due next week. In it, the agency forecasts oil prices rising over $100 a barrel in the not too distant future and remaining there through 2015, with prices hitting $200 per barrel by 2030. The report also reinforces the leaked news of steeper than expected decline rates in global oil production due to depletion of oil fields.

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.

“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over,” the report states …

“Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable,” the report states.

Output from the world’s oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030.

The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

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3 Responses

  1. [...] This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments , the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030 Read more [...]

  2. MB Wilkins says:

    There is nothing more that really gets my goat than this type of negative press release. If anyone will recall in the fall of 2006, the economist were projecting a very high fuel oil prices for the northeast. What happened in 2007, the forecast for higher demand of fuel oil never materialized. This year the forecast for gasoline usage was going to force prices through the roof, someone forgot Wall Street and its upsurd ways of doing business. Granted oil is not as plentiful as it was 60 years ago and the way the new president has stated that he is going to repeal and stop oil exploration just might be one of our downfalls. I hate negative comments people love to use on us to see how we will react.

  3. Joe says:

    I didn’t have a chance to check out all the link, so forgive my laziness if the question is answered in the full article… are these figures adjusted for inflation?

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